Use of satellite EO data and additional resources
Using the thermal infra-red channels of AVHRR instrument on the current NOAA polar orbiter
and FY-1, a Chinese meteorological satellite, one observation is made of the entire
country every 4 hours (west China is monitored obliquely, and hence image maps for this
area are relatively difficult to study).
The data from these instruments undergoes density slicing to determine the brightness
temperature and then undergoes geometric correction using information on the atmospheric
temperature and pressure. The data is then geo-referenced and calibrated in order to
produce a thermal infra-red map. Analysis of these maps is performed in order to identify
temperature anomalies which may be indicative of future earthquake activity. From an
anomaly's character, the time, location and magnitude of an earthquake may be predicted.
The main steps of the process are a follows:
1. Identify isolated area of thermal infra-red increase. The temperature may typically increase by 2 to 4 degrees C or higher than the sounding area.
2. Track the direction of the development and movement of the thermal infra-red increase area.
3. Identify the temperature increase phenomenon as a precursor of earthquake by taking into consideration the effects of weather, topography, geomorphology, geotectonics and present tectonics stress field.
4. Provide a three element prediction (earthquake time, location and magnitude) by considering the distribution of active fractures and seismic belts.
Prediction estimates are based upon:
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These AVHRR images are of Taiwan Island, showing the development of a temperature anomaly that was used to predict the Ms 6.8 Hualian earthquake of 1992. It was predicted that there would be an Ms 6 earthquake during the period 17 April to 3 May. The actual earthquake occurred on 20 April. |
Satellite thermal infrared temperature increases detected as precursors of earthquakes have been noted to possess the follow characteristics:
1) The abnormal temperature increase area is identifiable. Usually, it demonstrates itself as an isolated body in the thermal infrared image, and could be distinguished from other signals such as temperature anomalies caused by weather processes.
2) Our prediction practices prove that tracking of thermal infrared temperature anomalous increases as earthquake precursors is universally valid.
3) The temperature of the anomalous area is typically 2 to 6 degrees C higher than that of its surroundings.
4) The larger the area of the temperature anomaly, the larger the magnitude of the future earthquake.
5) The dynamic evolution of the anomaly area and location may be monitored by satellite to predict the location of earthquake.
6) Based on our observations and experiments, we could suggest a preliminary model for the mechanism of the anomalous temperature increase as follows:
The processing of data is performed by the Satellite Meteorological Centre of the
Meteorological Administration of China. The data from the project is stored on GIS.
Example Study 1: Changshu Earthquake
Example Study 2: Tainan earthquake
Example Study 3: Hualian earthquake
Example Study 4: Dongsha Earthquake
Example Study 5: Hualian earthquake
